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Hurricane Basics
Whether talking to elementary students or a college science class, it is necessary to start with the basics of hurricanes before proceeding to other topics. If presenting to a middle school, start with simple terms, such as how warm water, damp air, and wind interact to create a hurricane. It is also useful to name some of the parts, such as the eye, the eye wall and rain bands. If the topic is intended for a college audience, relate how the trade winds and surface waters interact to create temperature gradients that drive a hurricane system.
The Creation of Hurricanes
There are three factors necessary to form a hurricane. The first is that the surface water on the ocean must be warm enough to add heat into the overlying atmosphere. This heat must mix with the moisture from the sea water evaporation to form a "thermodynamic engine." Finally, a wind pattern must be present to spiral the air inward.
Hurricanes and El Nino
El Nino conditions generally occur every four years and are marked by the excessive warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific ocean. This results in more hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and a decreased presence in the Atlantic ocean. El Nino's wind shears augment storms in the Pacific, but help kill them in the Atlantic.
Predicting Hurricanes
There are two types of forecasts: seasonal probabilities and the details of a current hurricane. Scientists use wind speeds and climate factors to try to calculate probabilities of hurricanes hitting specific areas. Using a present hurricane's cone and other data, they can often track it and predict its path three to five days in advance.