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El Nino, Explained
Trade winds generally blow east to west, piling up warm surface water in the west Pacific. The water surface level can be several feet higher in regions like Indonesia compared to Ecuador. As the warmer surface water is pushed westward, cold, nutrient-rich water upwells from the depths to replace it, allowing for a diversity of marine life that fisherman count on. When these trade winds die, however, the warm water flows eastward, warming the water of the central and east Pacific 3 to 5 degrees F on average. This sudden change significantly affects the weather.
Winter Effects in North America
An El Nino event will augment the jet stream over the western Pacific and shift it eastward. As a result, places in the Midwest and Northern Canada will experience warmer winters. California and the southern United States, on the other hand, will experience stronger winter storms with increased precipitation. This can result in a significant increase in landslides and floods. The Pacific Northwest states, in contrast, tend to be drier during an El Nino season.
Hurricane Probability
El Nino has a tendency to reduce the likelihood of hurricanes in the Atlantic. It creates intense wind shears in the tropics that has the ability to overcome and kill some potential Atlantic hurricanes. At the same time, however, it raises the probability of cyclones and typhoons in the Pacific. It prevents the wind shears that would otherwise reduce Pacific hurricanes, allowing them to grow larger.
El Nino Prediction
Scientist continue to work on developing methods to foresee when El Nino events will occur and try to gauge an event's potential intensity. They have created and consistently fine-tuned numerical prediction models that take data representing processes that occur in nature in order to predict future seasonal change. This is important for fishing industries in the Pacific and the west coast of South America, which are nearly halted during an El Nino, as well as all the places in the world that will experience intense and dangerous weather patterns.