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Global Warming Expected Effects

The potential effects of global warming are calculated using Global Circulation Models. The GCMs are operated under various scenarios, each depicting a different set of future conditions. The scenarios anticipate various emission levels of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, in addition to levels of human population growth. Using the future predictions of temperature and precipitation from the GCMs, along with the different scenarios, predictions of potential future impacts of global warming can be made.

Melting of the Ice Caps
- Rising global temperatures are expected to increase melting of the world's major ice sheets, causing them to shrink in size, as demonstrated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007. This is predicted to further increase global warming through a range of positive feedbacks, such as reducing the ice albedo effect; the reflecting power of a surface. Therefore, exposed land left behind by the melting ice will absorb more heat due to a lower albedo and exacerbate global warming. Furthermore, the melting water from ice sheets can affect ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, through associated changes in salinity and temperature.
Rising Sea Level
- The melting of sea ice located at the poles and higher latitudes, due to warmer temperatures, will release vast quantities of melt water, contributing towards global rises in sea level. According to National Geographic, sea level rise increased over the last century, with a further rise of 7 to 23 inches predicted by the end of the century. This will place coastal regions at greater risk of coastal erosion and of losing areas of land to the sea. In addition, the IPCC explains how millions of people will face regular coastal floods as a consequence of rising sea level.
Increased Incidence of Extreme Climatic Events
- Heating of the oceans and the atmosphere will provide more energy throughout the climate system. Thus, warmer sea surface temperatures are predicted to help fuel an increase in extreme climatic events such as hurricanes. In addition, warmer temperatures can increase the risk of severe droughts and consequently a greater incidence of wildfires. Evidence of this is provided by the Natural Resources Defense Council, who demonstrate how 2006 wildfire season in the U.S. set new records in the number of reported fires and acres burned.
Ecological Impacts
- Changes in phenology, the timing of ecological events, such as the budding of plants, are expected to shift under warmer climates. The onset of spring is predicted to occur earlier, which will have knock-on effects for wildlife. According to the IPCC in 2007, the resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded by an unprecedented combination of climate change and associated disturbances, such as increased drought and wildfires, in addition to impacts from human population growth and land-use change.

Nature