Hobbies And Interests
International Relations Disaster or Hope
Oil and oil consumption has become a central fossil fuel for industrialization in all parts of the world. Therefore, if oil fields dry up for countries, competition between states for oil reserves will increase. Mike Martinez of the University of Alaska, Fairbanks argues that a destabilization of international relations and perhaps war could break out between countries over oil. However, with the threat of oil disappearing, Martinez admits that international cooperation to create or harness new fuel sources might occur as well.
Uncertainty and Power
M.A. Adelman of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology argues that since oil amounts cannot be known, uncertainty and scarcity might artificially be created. For example, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, crisis in the 1970s came from speculating by those countries over their supply of oil. An economic crisis unfolded from this, leading affluent Western powers to become concerned over oil supplies globally. Arguably, unlike a war or conflict scenario, states with oil supplies can use their speculation muscles to muster more political strength on the world stage.
Possible Investment in New Technology
If human society wishes to continue, oil has to be replaced as a fuel source. The range of possibilities are limited at the moment, and some scenarios are more preferred than others. For example, the environmental destruction that has come from oil consumption would make investment in cleaner sources, such as solar energy or hydrogen power, more attractive. However, any relative expenses in investment might make nation-states less willing to invest in those energy sources. Sources that are currently available, such as coal, ethanol or nuclear energy, may see higher investments than solar, wind or hydrogen.
Conforming to New World Structure
Whatever the scenario, the human race will have to adapt quickly to a radical drop in oil production or reserve amounts. Oil has helped modernize and industrialize the world and continues to at this moment with countries such as India and China becoming major powers on the world stage. The human race has also seen increases in the world population and the consumption rate of that new population, placing a burden on oil supplies and the sustainability of other natural resources. Whatever happens, most economists agree that the world would shift dramatically if oil dried up suddenly or even during a small period of time, like a decade.